Monday, February 23, 2004
DCBA Top Three
Three weeks in, and the Elephants are right where they thought they were before the draft, third place behind the Woodies and Keteers, and with the rest of the league close behind them. Lets see how these three teams break down.
Homers
1) Woodies are off to a good start with Choi & Cabrera jumping out of the gate, and they'll get even more with Sanders, Cameron, Piazza, Nevin, Kent, and MGiles waiting to go off.
2) Keteers have fewer power bats but include Pujols and Dunn along with Jenkins and maybe Beltre. Preston Wilson's injury hurts them.
3) Elephants send out Burntiz, Giles, Craig Wilson and Nick Johnson to provide the power. They could use some homer help.
RBIs
1) Woodies also have Sean Burroughs, Tike Redman and Brian Schneider to fill the RBI gap. Todd Walker may get more playing time in Chicago as well.
2) Elephants compensate for their lack of homers with good RBI guys like Casey, Renteria, Polanco, Cintron, Finley, Larson and Nick Johnson.
3) Keteers fill their offense with Ramon Castro, Beltre, Hernandez, Alomar, Wigginton, Payton, Conine and Hill. A lot of question marks in that group.
Stolen bases
1) Woodies have great SB options in Cameron and Sanders, and will also get some from MGiles, Burroughs and Everett. The big contributor may end up being Jose Reyes if he can overcome his injuries.
2) Elephants get steals from a variety of sources including Renteria, Polanco, Cintron, Burnitz and Goodwin.
3) Keteers have Luis Castillo and maybe a few scattered SBs from Dunn, Payton and Hill.
Batting average
1) Elephants have several .300+ hitters in Casey, Renteria, Polanco, Cintron and Giles and risks are limited to part-time players easily replaced.
2) Woodies have several dangerous (for them) hitters in Cameron, Choi, Everett and Patterson.
3) Keteers have risky players aplenty here with Hernandez and Dunn and only Pujols and Castillo can be counted on for .300.
Offensive Depth
1) Jose Reyes, Kerry Robinson & Keith Ginter are currently on the Woodie bench.
2) Jeffrey Hammonds is currently in for Nick Johnson, but depth may grow when Antonio Perez and Russ Branyan return to the bigs.
3) With Preston Wilson out a while, the Keteers have no depth and will have a hole soon where Alomar stood. Seven minor league hitters but none likely to play for awhile.
Starters
1) Keteers have strong rotation of Big Unit, Clemens, Penny, Leiter, Clement and Lawrence. As long as five of these stay healthy, the Keteers will be among the top in wins, ERA and ratio.
2) Woodies rotation of Beckett, Pettitte, Armas, Myers, Ortiz, Benson and Marquis is deep and could rack up wins. Many of these are health or trade risks and other than Beckett no one can be counted on for great ERA/WHIP.
3) Elephants first five are strong in Roy O, Sheets, Livan, Glavine and Jose Acevedo, but they have only Ismael Valdez to fall back on.
Closers / Relievers
1) Keteers sport Octavio Dotel and Trevor Hoffman as closers with Chad Cordero waiting in the wings, so saves should be a strength.
2) Elephants have the Giants closer in Herges/Nen and can only hope for Jeremy Fikac to get a look in Montreal.
3) Woodies have the #2 closer on several teams with Hawkins, Fox, Lidge and Stanton. Hawkins may get the job in Chicago soon, but the others need an injury at this point.
Pitching Depth
1) Woodies have excellent depth with two starters already on reserve, and three active relievers. Brandon Claussen, Seung Song and Dan Haren may contribute before the year is out.
2) Elephants have a little depth with Ismael Valdez and Ryan Madson waiting in the wings with Robb Nen.
3) Keteers have three mediocre middle relievers and not much else.
Trade Bait
1) Elephants have Wilson(6B), Polanco(7B), Cintron(10A), Burnitz(14B), Larson(3A), Roy O (15D05), Livan(10B), Acevedo(1A) and a Giants closer under $22 to trade. They also have excellent NC prospects like David Wright, Scott Hairston, Brendan Harris and Brad Nelson.
2) The Woodies have Choi(10B), Nevin(12B), Burroughs(10A), Patterson(10B), Cabrera(10B), Reyes(NC), Lidge(1B) and pitching NCs like Kazmir, Buchholz and Claussen as their primary tradebait.
3) Keteers have Jenkins(13B), Dotel(12B), Hoffman (21B), Penny(6B), Cordero(8A) as primary tradebait. Among their NCs are highly rated prospects J.J. Hardy and Josh Barfield.
Overview
Its gonna be tough for the Keteers and Elephants to keep up with the pitching and hitting of the Woodies. The Woodies need to trade to patch their Achilles heel of a bullpen. The Keteers could use more offense but don't have as much to deal. The Elephants have a lot of holes on offense, and could use a second closer so they have their work cut out for them.
posted by Mariner Optimist 9:24 AM
